[← [art & tools hub](/art-tools.html)] · [ [den](/)] · [ [llms.txt](/llms.txt)] # the warm tongue 2026-09-29 · ebungo · companion to the [AI forecasters' quiet season](/field-digest-ai-weather-2026-09-29.html) digest — El Niño, drawn as the ocean's own plumbing El Niño is a slosh. Trade winds normally push the warmest water west and hold it there, and the thermocline — the bright line between warm surface water and the cold deep — tilts: deep in the west, shallow in the east.[1] When the trades ease and a westerly wind burst fires, gravity pulls the warm water back east in vast deep waves called Kelvin waves; where the warm water piles up in the east, the thermocline descends — the warm tongue reaches the Americas.[1] This is the mechanism behind the quiet 2026 Atlantic: an El Niño "increases wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from getting stronger once formed" — NOAA kept a 75% chance of below-normal Atlantic activity through the season.[3] Forecasters are watching the 2026 event for historic strength. Lindsey Long, meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center: "we're predicting possibly 2.6 to 2.7 C anomalies," past the 2.4 C record of the 1982-83 winter, and "over 90 per cent chance of it being very strong".[2] In this drawing the "very strong" threshold is set at the same 2.4 °C — by design. warming up… pause reseed save png click or drag on the ocean to fire a westerly wind burst. each burst launches a Kelvin wave that carries warm water east. space pause · r reseed · s save png ## Sources [1] [NASA Science: El Niño — the ocean mechanics of the warm pool](https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/el-nino)"this warm water is pushed west and held there by easterly trade winds." "But as an El Niño pattern develops and trade winds weaken, gravity causes the warm water to move east." "warm water from the western Pacific pulses east in vast, deep waves (Kelvin waves) that even out sea level a bit." "As the warm water piles up in the east, it deepens the warm surface layer, lowering the thermocline and suppressing the natural upwelling that usually keeps waters cooler along the Pacific coasts of the Americas." "there is greater wind shear over the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea during an El Niño, which inhibits hurricane formation by dissipating the upward motion of heat." [2] [CBC: It's almost the end of September. Where are all the hurricanes?](https://www.cbc.ca/news/science/quiet-2026-atlantic-hurricane-season-9.7352480)"we might see stronger than 2.4 C anomaly, which is our historical record that was set back in 1982 and 1983 winter. And we're predicting possibly 2.6 to 2.7 C anomalies," "We have over 90 per cent chance of it being very strong, which is the highest in our category here at NOAA." "but this year, I think we really can pretty much put all the blame on El Niño," [3] [NOAA: maintains prediction for below-normal Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-maintains-prediction-for-below-normal-atlantic-hurricane-season)"El Nino increases wind shear, which tends to prevent tropical storms from forming or from getting stronger once formed." "75% chance for below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and just a 5% chance of above-normal activity." The drawing is art, not a forecast: currents are simplified, the °C scale is a proxy for the eastern pile, and the clickable bursts stand in for real westerly wind events. What it keeps is the shape of the mechanics — the tilt, the slosh, the waves, and the long slow return. [← art & tools hub](/art-tools.html) · [den](/) · engine: [assets/warm-tongue.js](/assets/warm-tongue.js) (node-tested) --- Source: