FIG. 2 · FIELD-RESEARCH COMPANION · 2026-10-03
THE NOBEL WEEK 2026 WATCH BOARD
six announcement slots · 22 names on the forecast board · the 89-of-487 track record
ebungo · a dark-blueprint reading of field digest — Nobel week 2026. every name and number cites its ledger id; sources at the foot. this is a watch board, not a prediction: Clarivate says so itself.
A · the week — six slots, 5-12 October
MON 05 · 11:30
Medicine ← first grade
The 2026 announcements take place 5-12 October, all streamed live on the official channels.[1] Most slots say "11:30 CEST at the earliest" — the Peace prize has a fixed time instead: Friday 9 October, 11:00 CEST, by the Norwegian Nobel Committee at the Norwegian Nobel Institute.[1] Medicine opens the week at the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet.[1]
all times CEST · "at the earliest" means the academy can slip, not that it will · the morning-after grade happens here
B · medicine — three trios + one
GLP-1Daniel Drucker · Jens Holst · Svetlana Mojsov[3]
OCTJames Fujimoto · David Huang · Eric Swanson[3]
IMMUNETimothy Springer[3]
The GLP-1 trio is the strongest analog on the whole board — Clarivate gave the same three names the citation for identifying and characterizing glucagon-like peptide-1, the biology behind drugs that "have revolutionized the treatment of diabetes and obesity for millions."[3] The OCT trio built optical coherence tomography, which "allows physicians to detect soft-tissue diseases, especially of the eye, before symptoms appear."[3] Springer found the immune system's adhesion receptors — the "science of stickiness".[3]
C · physics — displays, multiferroics, zero resistance
OLEDChihaya Adachi · Stephen Forrest · Mark Thompson[4]
MULTINicola Spaldin[4]
HALLQikun Xue[4]
The OLED trio's phosphorescent and TADF advances "have brought both high efficiency and sustainability to the display devices we all use today."[4] Spaldin's room-temperature multiferroics point "to a future of ultra-low-power computing."[4] Xue's quantum anomalous Hall experiment showed "the possibility of a zero-resistance highway for electricity in consumer electronics."[4]
D · chemistry — monolayers, electrons, editors
SAMSDavid Allara · Ralph Nuzzo · Jacob Sagiv[5]
REDOXHarry Gray · Jay Winkler[5]
EDITDavid Liu[5]
The self-assembled monolayers work of the 1980s "laid the foundation for modern nanotechnology, biosensors, and molecular electronics."[5] Gray and Winkler traced long-range electron transfer in proteins — research that "fundamentally altered approaches to targeted drug therapy and green energy production."[5] Liu's base and prime editing are "revolutionary techniques that offer precise and accurate gene editing."[5]
E · economics — the digital market, the bank, evolution
IT-ECONSusan Athey · Hal Varian[6]
POLICYMichael Woodford[6]
EVOSidney Winter[6]
Athey and Varian helped create "a new digital marketplace that has become an ever larger and more important part of the entire global economy."[6] Woodford's work transformed central banks by emphasizing "forward guidance" to manage expectations.[6] Winter reads organizations through evolutionary theory: "Like species, organizations adapt to their environment and establish strategies for survival."[6]
F · the track record — why the board is worth reading
22 named 2026
across four prizes
487 named since 2002
citation laureates
89 later won
a nobel prize
Clarivate has named 487 citation laureates since 2002, and "89 Citation Laureates have gone on to receive a Nobel Prize" in that time.[2] The program is explicit about its own limits — it "does not aim to predict Nobel Prize recipients in a specific year."[2] That is the honest frame for everything above: the board marks who is of Nobel class, and the actual committees may pick anyone, including names nobody flagged.[2]
The game of the week is comparison, not prophecy. Monday's Medicine announcement is the first grade: does the actual academy repeat the GLP-1 trio, or does it reach for work the forecast board did not carry? The watch board is set — now the prizes speak.
FIG. 2 · THE NOBEL WEEK 2026 WATCH BOARD
SHEET: INFOGRAPHIC
DRAWN: 2026-10-03
SCALE: NTS
REV: A
Sources
[1] NobelPrize.org — Prize announcement dates"This year's Nobel Prize announcements will take place on 5-12 October.""The prize will be announced on Monday, 5 October, 11:30 CEST at the earliest, at the Nobel Assembly at Karolinska Institutet.""The prize will be announced on Friday, 9 October, 11:00 CEST, by the Norwegian Nobel Committee at the Norwegian Nobel Institute."
[2] Clarivate — Citation Laureates 2026"Since 2002, 89 Citation Laureates have gone on to receive a Nobel Prize""While the Citation Laureates program does not aim to predict Nobel Prize recipients in a specific year, it recognizes researchers whose achievements are of Nobel class.""Citation Laureates named since 2002"
[3] Clarivate — Citation Laureates 2026 in Physiology or Medicine"GLP-1 receptor agonist drugs have revolutionized the treatment of diabetes and obesity for millions.""OCT allows physicians to detect soft-tissue diseases, especially of the eye, before symptoms appear meaning sight rather than blindness for countless patients.""science of stickiness"
[4] Clarivate — Citation Laureates 2026 in Physics"These second- and third-generation advances in organic light emitting diode technology have brought both high efficiency and sustainability to the display devices we all use today.""Combining ferroelectricity and ferromagnetism properties in new materials points to a future of ultra-low-power computing.""This milestone experiment demonstrated the possibility of a zero-resistance highway for electricity in consumer electronics."
[5] Clarivate — Citation Laureates 2026 in Chemistry"This groundbreaking research of the 1980s laid the foundation for modern nanotechnology, biosensors, and molecular electronics""By revealing how cells generate and transfer energy, this research fundamentally altered approaches to targeted drug therapy and green energy production.""Base and prime editing are revolutionary techniques that offer precise and accurate gene editing"
[6] Clarivate — Citation Laureates 2026 in Economics"Using statistical analysis and data science, these researchers helped create a new digital marketplace""This research transformed the activity of central banks by emphasizing “forward guidance” to manage public expectations and inflationary dynamics.""Like species, organizations adapt to their environment and establish strategies for survival"